It’s now three weeks to the presidential election on March 28, and things are shaping up already for the big day. The parties are rounding off their campaigns. INEC is doing mock elections to test run its equipment and operations. The world is watching what’s going to happen in the coming weeks. Who will win this election?
A commentator on political issues, Adedayo Ademuwagun, has compiled a list of states where it is likely APC candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, will lose the polls.
Muhammadu Buhari has undoubtedly had a phenomenal run in
this election. He’s transformed from being a bigoted strongman to being
charismatic leader that people nationwide now look up to for change. He
might just well win this election.
However, there are some states where Buhari might lose this
election based on recent history and the sociopolitical circumstances
in those states. Here are 17 states where this might happen.
1. Benue
Benue is a predominantly Christian state in the middle
belt. In the last election Jonathan best Buhari here and clinched over
66% of the votes. Buhari might lose here again this year. The state is
run by a PDP government.
2. Kogi
Jonathan soundly beat Buhari in Kogi in 2011. He got 70% of
the votes. Kogi has a significant Christian population and is governed
by the PDP.
3. Plateau
Jonathan defeated Buhari in Plateau by a wide margin last time. Plateau is mainly Christian and has a PDP government.
4. Abuja
This is the seat of government where President Jonathan is
in charge. He grabbed over two-thirds of the votes in 2011 and won
comfortably. The federal government-run things in Abuja and this could
be a disadvantage to Buhari.
5. Taraba
Buhari only mustered half the number of votes Jonathan won
in this state last time. It’s a mainly Christian state and the
government is PDP.
6. Adamawa
Buhari bowed to Jonathan here in 2011. It’s one of the two
states in the northeast where Buhari lost to Jonathan. It’s a
predominantly Christian state.
7. Abia
Jonathan won 99% of the votes here while Buhari won less
than 1%. The east is Buhari’s worst nightmare. Abia is mainly Christian.
8. Ebonyi
Again Buhari fared woefully here last time. He didn’t even get 1,000 votes here. The PDP is in charge in Ebonyi.
9. Anambra
Anambra is run by the APGA but the people are leaning
towards Jonathan. Anambra is the heart of Igbo territory. A Buhari
victory is unlikely here.
10. Enugu
Like Anambra, Enugu is the heart of Igbo territory.
Jonathan neatly beat Buhari here last time. The general didn’t get 0.5%
of the votes here. The people are likely going to vote Jonathan. It’s a
PDP state.
11. Bayelsa
A Buhari win in Bayelsa will be a complete miracle. This is
Jonathan’s home. He swept virtually all the votes here last time. It
may not happen like that again this month, but surely his people will
get behind him.
12. Delta
This state is strongly PDP and more likely to vote Jonathan
than Buhari. Jonathan won over 98% of the votes here in 2011. Buhari
hardly commands any following in this state.
13. Edo
Governor Oshiomhole’s popularity has dwindled in the past
few years and so even though the state government is run by Buhari’s
party, it’s not certain that the general would take the prize here. But
it’s possible.
14. Akwa Ibom
Akwa Ibom voted resoundingly for Jonathan in 2011 and it’s a PDP state. Buhari will have a hard time taking this state.
15. Cross Rivers
Cross Rivers has a PDP government. Buhari lost to Jonathan
here in the previous election. Jonathan is more likely to win here
despite everything.
16. Ekiti
Ekiti is one of two states in the west controlled by the
PDP. The governor is chiefly behind Jonathan and he’s got a huge
grassroots following. He’s a man of the people. He’s capable of swaying
his people.
17. Ondo
Ondo is the other state in the west controlled by the PDP.
Like Governor Fayose of Ekiti, Ondo governor Mimiko also has a strong
grassroots following and is backing Jonathan. But maybe Buhari can
surmount the challenge and snatch a win in this state.
0 comments:
Post a Comment