Analytics: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election

President Goodluck Jonathan has had a mixed campaign so far. He’s received criticism and praise for his administration in the last five years. Will he win this election?

A commentator on electoral issues, Adedayo Ademuwagun, has compiled a list of 18 states where Jonathan might lose the polls, and why.

The big day is now just three weeks from now and things are shaping up already. The people rooting for President Jonathan are keenly looking forward to March 28 and anticipating a victory for him.

However, there are some states where the president might lose this election based on recent history and the sociopolitical circumstances in those states. Here are 18 states where this might happen.

1. Niger

Niger is the only state in the north central that Jonathan lost in 2011. He won the other states in the zone. Niger’s mainly Muslim population might be a difficulty for Jonathan again this time.

2. Yobe

Buhari has the upper hand in Yobe and the rest of the north east. Last time Jonathan lost heavily to Buhari in this state. Buhari will likely sweep the votes here this month. It’s a core Muslim state.

3. Gombe

Jonathan lost Gombe to Buhari too in 2011. He probably doesn’t have much chance here this year either. The Muslim majority in the state isn’t leaning in his direction.

4. Borno

Borno has largely been a war zone for some time now. Boko Haram seized parts of the state and imposed a great deal of terror here. The people will probably not be voting for the president because of the way he’s handled the fight against insurgency in their area. Buhari will probably win it here.

5. Bauchi

It was an easy win for Buhari in Bauchi last time where he pocketed 82% of the votes. Jonathan almost certainly has no chance of winning in Bauchi this year or in any state in the north east for that matter.

6. Zamfara

Zamfara is a core Muslim state in the north west. Buhari is king here as he is in the rest of the north west. Last time he cleanly swept this zone and Jonathan lost in all the states including Zamfara. This zone is Jonathan’s worst nightmare.

7. Sokoto

Here’s another mainly Muslim state that will be hard for Jonathan to win. He lost here last time even though the PDP runs things in the state. It’s not likely he can turn around the situation this year.

8. Kebbi

Buhari defeated Jonathan in Kebbi state in 2011. He’s apparently going to win it here again this time. Jonathan’s popularity in the area hasn’t improved pretty much in the last four years.

9. Katsina

This is where Buhari comes from. His victory in this state is indisputable.

10. Kano

Kano is another stronghold of Buhari. It was a walkover for him here in the last election. Now the APC is also in charge in Kano. Jonathan barely has a chance in this state.

11. Kaduna

Jonathan narrowly lost to Buhari here in 2011 even though the state has a Muslim majority. It’s another state where he might lose this month. However, the state is PDP.

12. Jigawa

Buhari beat Jonathan in Jigawa last year and is a lot more popular than the president in this state. But Jonathan might still draw the votes given his party is in charge in the state.

13. Rivers

The governor Rotimi Amaechi is one of Jonathan’s principal enemy and he’s Buhari’s campaign chief. Jonathan knocked out Buhari completely the last time, but this time the APC have the momentum and the equation has changed.

14. Imo

Buhari’s party runs the government in this Igbo state and the governor Rochas Okorocha is highly popular among the masses. He can and will probably influence the voters here in favour of his party’s candidate. A Jonathan victory here is uncertain.

15. Oyo

Jonathan packed the most votes in the west last time, but things have since changed with the APC merger. Now the west is rooting for Buhari, and Oyo is no exception.  Jonathan’s popularity has greatly dipped among the Yorubas.

16. Osun

Even last time when Jonathan won in other Yoruba states, he lost in this one. The governor Rauf Aregbesola is so popular in the state and he’s definitely campaigning for his party, the APC. Jonathan virtually has no chance of winning here.

17. Ogun

Ogun is obviously leaning towards Buhari and the APC like the other Yoruba states. Jonathan hasn’t got a strong enough following here to challenge the APC.

18. Lagos

Protesters will predictably pour out on the streets of Lagos if Jonathan happens to win there. He’s the least popular candidate on the ballot among the Lagos people. He beat Buhari in this city the last time, but now it’s a lot harder for him to repeat that feat in this election.